Publications
"Abortion Ballot Measures Affect Election Outcomes" with Graham Gardner and Melissa K. Spencer, Economics Letters, 2025.
Abstract: In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.
Working Papers
"Leveraging an October Surprise to Estimate Coattail Effects," second-round R&R at AEJ: Economic Policy | pdf
Abstract: Does a presidential candidate’s popularity impact her party’s down-ballot success? So-called "coattail effects" can be challenging to identify: it is difficult to distinguish between voters' opinion of a prominent candidate and her political party. To overcome this challenge, I exploit a shock to candidate popularity created by late-election information in the 2016 presidential election. Differences in states' convenience voting laws created variation in voters' ability to respond to FBI Director James Comey's letter to Congress. Results indicate that knowledge of the letter significantly increased Republican presidential vote share. Using an instrumented difference-in-differences model, I find that a one percentage point increase in Republican presidential vote share increases down-ballot Republican vote share by 0.79 percentage points.
"Abortion Ballot Measures and Voting Behavior" with Graham Gardner and Melissa K. Spencer | pdf
Abstract: Can abortion ballot measures generate electoral spillover effects, and for whom? Abortion ballot measures have become an important aspect of US elections, with 16 states voting on measures since the 2022 Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health. Using nationwide electoral returns and survey data, we study the effects of abortion ballot measures on election outcomes in 2022 and 2024. We find no evidence that abortion ballot measures increase overall turnout. Results show that abortion ballot measures decreased the Republican vote margin in US House elections by 4.9 percentage points in 2022 but increased the margin by 4.5 percentage points in 2024. The increase in Republican votes in 2024 can be explained by a vote separation mechanism: ballot measures allow voters to separate the specific ballot issue from their choice of partisan candidate.
"Early Voting and Late-Election Information" | pdf
Abstract: Convenience voting offers voters a "low-cost" method of voting, but at a price: those who vote early cannot incorporate late-election information into their vote. Given this trade-off between voting cost and full information, when is early voting welfare-improving? I develop a model where voters choose to vote early, on election day, or not at all. Information and the realized cost of election day voting affect whether a voter votes or not. I show that early voting can improve social welfare when election day voting costs are correlated with ideological preferences.
Works in Progress
"Do Newer Methods Deliver? Re-evaluating the Impact of Universal Vote by Mail" | new draft coming soon!